Some betting ideas
Two-Leg Parlay
YTD: 4-6 (-3.43 units)
Last year was such a positive year. In 2023, just nothing seems to be going right with this two-legger. Tucker Lutz fell into his first career submission loss, and Steve Peterson made Lucas Alexander look like Max Holloway and subsequently retired. It would have been nice to know he was that close to a decision before fight week!
This week's lay comes with a bit of juice because this card is basically devoid of favorites, but I truly do have a strong feeling these picks get us turned around.
Ignacio Bahamondes and Raul Rojas Jr. to Both Win
(-129; 1.4 Units)
These are two of the brightest prospects in all of UFC, so it really does help to know the promotion absolutely doesn't want them to lose.
Ignacio Bahamondes (-350) originally had a fight scheduled with Nikolas Motta here, and Motta is a one-dimensional striker with a
striking success rate (SSR) of -1.17. Bahamondes (card-best +3.30 SSR) would have waltzed through him with ease, but this matchup is very winnable, too.
Trey Ogden is a regional grappler with 11 of his 16 pro wins via submission. He'd really prefer not to strike as a -0.30 SSR would indicate, but he's been so inefficient when attempting takedowns (15%) that he's
had to. Bahamondes' 95% takedown defense -- on 20 attempts faced -- should only exacerbate that issue.
Despite being at a shorter number, I'm actually more confident in 18-year-old
Raul Rojas Jr. (-260). He got a more skilled opponent, Christian Rodriguez, than I would have expected as a budding star, but Rodriguez's issues could play right into El Niño Problem's hands.
C-Rod has a poor 56% takedown defense and was taken down multiple times by Jonathan Pearce (a very good fighter) and Josh Weems (the opposite of one). Rosas' takedown efficiency has been excellent (62%), and he's aggressively hunting the finish, averaging 2.50 submissions per 15.
Straight Bets
Chris Curtis to Win (+108; 1.2 Units)
The worst enemy of
Chris Curtis (+104) might be Chris Curtis.
Curtis is a budding star at middleweight, but he's been thrice forced to come from behind to score key wins over Phil Hawes, Joaquin Buckley, and Brendan Allen. He's willing to play defense
too much, absorbing 6.39 significant strikes per minute. That's a willingness issue, according to his otherwise solid 55% striking D.
He might even beat Kelvin Gastelum playing that style, but Curtis should have a great opportunity to lead the dance in this fight. Of course, his takedown defense is a perfect 100%, and Gastelum (32% takedown accuracy) hasn't done that exceptionally well anyway.
In a striking match, he'll have a four-inch edge in reach and historically lands 56% of his significant strikes. That's a full 15 percentage points higher than the stubby Gastelum.
Two of the three aforementioned middleweights have an SSR better than Kelvin's (+0.29), so I'd be shocked if Curtis didn't cash a slight 'dog in this fight, which is a familiar position. He's 5-1 as an underdog with UFC.
Alex Pereira to Win (+114; 1.1 Units)
I really would have expected Israel Adesanya to be the underdog and sharp betting side in this weekend's main event, but there's a perception
Alex Pereira (+114) "got lucky" to finish Izzy in the fifth round last fall.
It's really the opposite. Adesanya, as someone who hasn't had a win by finish in six of his last seven bouts, has such a passive striking style that it's surprising it took
this long for him to get caught playing with food. Adesanya lands just 3.99 significant strikes per minute on a good -- but not amazing -- 50% striking accuracy.
Pereira has now beaten Adesanya in all three of their pro fights. Two were kickboxing matches, and the last one was an MMA fight. It's because "Poatan" is just willing to do more work than Adesanya. He's averaged 5.29 significant strikes per minute with 59% accuracy. That is a championship mark.
Adesanya doesn't have the power to put away top challengers. He's got a 0.66% knockdown rate in official middleweight title bouts. Pereira isn't afraid to stand in front of him and outpoint him.
While, yes, Adesanya
could have gotten the nod in a close fight last November, Pereira could have, too. The problem here is that, if any fighter is to significantly improve, it's Alex. He's got just eight career MMA fights and learns a tremendous amount between camps.
With significant improvement, there's actually a chance this weekend's result is even more convincing than the last.
Dart Throws of the Week
Rob Font by Decision or Submission (+200; 0.5 Units)
Adrian Yanez is in the same vein as a Bahamondes or Rosas Jr. as a bantamweight prospect, but he's not facing the unproven competition those guys are.
Yanez draws
Rob Font (+148) on Saturday, and Font has spent the better part of two years in the division's top 10. He's proven way too much to be a 'dog in this spot.
First of all, Yanez hasn't even faced a legitimate grappling attack at this stage. Font averages 1.03 takedowns per 15 minutes with modest 37% accuracy and planted Chito Vera and Jose Aldo in his last two fights. If Yanez can't grapple at a ranked level, this one could be a rout.
Font could still point his way to a win on the feet, though. After all, against much tougher competition, Font's +2.43 SSR trumps Yanez's mark of +1.13. Rob's low knockdown rate (0.53%) is unlikely to knock out the youngster, who hasn't even been wobbled in UFC thus far.
I love this double-chance wager to back the veteran as the more experienced underdog in this spot.
Gerald Meerschaert by Submission (+360; 0.5 Units)
It's pretty wild we can get this price on
Gerald Meerschaert (+164) considering how gifted the submission specialist has proven to be time and time again. I feel gluttonous going back to this well again.
GM3 has secured 27 of his 35 pro wins (77.1%) by submission, and he averages 1.70 submission attempts per 15 minutes (third-best on this card). He's really made a career out of his grappling with pretty poor striking (-0.34 SSR) to this point, but he did just drop Bruno Silva with a punch in his last fight, and his competition level is
regressing here.
Silva was a multi-time UFC winner that went the distance with the champ, Alex Pereira. He's a solid striker. Joe Pyfer hasn't proven anything with an ounce of legitimacy. Alen Amedovski was his first career opponent, and Amedovski holds the UFC record for the fewest significant strikes landed (18) with a minimum of 4 fights and 20 minutes of octagon time. He's awful, and unsurprisingly, Pyfer knocked him out quickly.
Yet, it's
Pyfer saying Meerschaert "sucks" entering this bout. Okay.
Pyfer has already been knocked out by Dustin Stoltzfus (2-4 UFC), so a veteran and 10-time winner like GM3? All Meerschaert has to do is avoid getting clocked, and he should dominate this fight from start to finish.
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